What you we expect from COP 25 to be held in Madrid
November 20, 2019. COP25 – What you need to know
Diplomats and officials from almost 200 countries will arrive in Madrid at the beginning of December to discuss the best way to address the climate crisis. In 2015, the governments signed the Paris Agreement, the first UN global treaty in which all nations pledged to zero their emissions by mid century. Next year, the same countries must present new climate plans and more strict.
It is a challenge: in the midst of a hard geopolitical situation, the rise of populism of far right and the trade war between the United States and China, cooperation in the UN is getting harder and harder. Meanwhile, the gas emissions of greenhouse effect continue to rise and the number of deaths from climate impacts increasingly devastating grows. Small, medium and large economies are struggling with the consequences of these impacts.
The 25th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Convention on the Climate Change (COP25) begins at a time when climate impacts are aggravated worldwide. Fires consume forests from the Amazon to Indonesia, from Congo to Australia. The floods just hit to the United Kingdom and Venice. Heat waves, high intensity hurricanes and torrential storms are now common phenomena.
Meanwhile, political pressure grows for governments to increase their action Climate Anger over inequality, corruption, unfair policies and lack of basic services like clean air and water are pushing people to the streets.
Young people, indigenous peoples and vulnerable communities are beginning to exert significant political pressure, and scientists, artists, entrepreneurs, mayors and Ordinary citizens are increasingly referring to the “climate crisis.”
Environmental groups are expected to argue that the root cause of the climate crisis is linked to unbridled capitalism that benefits the rich polluters while displacing the poorest and putting the biodiversity and civilization as we know it today. The voices that demand that social justice is at the heart of a world without carbon emissions are
getting stronger
What is in game?
Discrepancies between what governments should do according to science and what they are really doing, are receiving unprecedented worldwide attention. Starting COP25 the race begins for governments to present new climate plans, which should be ready by 2020 and, under the Paris Agreement, they must be better than the previous ones.
Why Madrid?
Spain agreed to host COP25 when Chile withdrew due to the riots, the deaths and the police repression in Santiago and other cities of the country. This means that Chile and Spain will be co-hosts of this COP, since the country Latin American maintains the presidency of the meeting. This is not unusual: in 2017, Fiji hosted COP23 in Bonn, Germany, as it lacked the necessary infrastructure in its capital, Suva.
The celebration of COP25 is an excellent opportunity for Spain to show the progress made in the energy transition since the socialists arrived to power in June 2018. The Minister for Ecological Transition, Teresa Ribera, is
determined to use the COP to advance international action and also to give a impulse to his national ambition. After years of stagnation in the development of renewable energy under the previous government, Spain now has much to
share with the world. They have become leaders in ensuring a just transition, starting with its agreement to close all coal mines last year, signed by the unions. There has been a clear commitment to “leave no one behind”,
and the government has continued to work with the affected communities to ensure that the closure of coal-fired power plants be offset by growth of the low carbon economy. The strategy seems to be successful and, in the areas
affected, the socialists obtained the same amount or even more votes in the last elections Spain also has enormous potential as a world leader in renewable energy.
What is the big question?
Quoting the UN Secretary General: “ambition, ambition, ambition, ambition, ambition and ambition. ”
This meeting should generate momentum and pressure on large polluters: the COP25 is a vital meeting for global ambition. At its closing, the main issuers must listen to calls to action and leave Spain feeling that they must present leading commitments in 2020. If the European Union, China and India feel the pressure, that, will inject some rhythm into global climate efforts.
António Guterres is expected to be in Madrid to reinforce his call to countries to stop feeding their “coal addiction”, demand neutrality plans for carbon by 2050 and ask for the end of the billions of dollars allocated to fossil fuels. The European Union could announce its zero net plan by 2050, while 100 or more countries could commit to carbon neutrality by the middle of the century The Alliance for Climate Ambition, led by Chile and the UN, is being
considered by the hosts as the “main result” of COP25. Until now, 67 countries have joined the Alliance, which set zero net emissions as its target carbon by 2050. The hosts want to double the participation in the coalition and
Attract companies, cities and regions.
What will the negotiations be about?
1- Carbon markets: it is urgent to determine how carbon markets can play a positive role in global efforts – the rules of the Article 6 of the Paris Agreement (which covers markets) remain in a limbo and will be one of the toughest political negotiations during the summit. Deep down, it’s about integrity: the ¿offsets ’used by countries and large companies count as new emission reductions? Or will we see an increase of the doubtful offsets in which existing forests are counted as new, thus undermining the Paris Agreement?
There are two main issues: the transfer of compensation from country to country, which will go ahead even without rules, so you need rules (and this is where the urgency comes into play); and a separate global carbon market that would allow countries (and, through them, companies) exchange compensation.
In the first, it’s just about making sure there is an accounting system trustworthy. In the second case, it is about establishing a totally new system and Link it to existing carbon markets. There are questions about the amount of remnants of existing market mechanisms (only among developed countries and developing countries). That is, if China, India or even Brazil can sell the compensations produced now to the countries that want use them to compensate for their action between 2020 and 2025. This would obviously undermine the pressure to reduce emissions in the next five year period.
2- Losses and damages: the rising costs of losses and damages related to climatic extremes are back on the agenda and will be a topic of great importance for COP25. Vulnerable countries want the UN agency to deal with the theme – known as the Warsaw International Mechanism (WIM) in English) – have access to financial support, so that those affected by the climate extreme can in turn access to compensation. For the WIM to be fully operational, governments must review it. This It will happen in Madrid. Together with the financing of losses and damages (apart from the adaptation), governance is a key issue (and above all political). The question: Will the WIM serve only the CMA (the meeting of the Parties to the Paris Agreement in the COP framework), or both the COP and the CMA? Only the Parties to the Agreement Paris can participate in the CMA, which limits its scope. While the countries
developed want the WIM to be under the CMA, most of the countries in development want the WIM to serve both the CMA and the COP.
3- Science: the IPCC produced two reports in 2019, one on the impacts of climate on the earth, the other over the oceans and the cryosphere. The main message of the scientists is that the world needs to reduce emissions by half between 2020 and 2030 and, at same time, regenerate nature, to have a greater chance (but not sure) of not rising from 1.5 ° C heating. These reports will be reviewed in Madrid and countries will decide how to use the recommendations of scientists. It will not be easy: Earlier this year, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Kuwait and the United States opposed that references to the IPCC 1.5 ° C seminal report be included in the political negotiations
4- The envoys will also discuss the future of the action agenda (this is the only one way in which companies, cities, etc. can formally interact with UNFCCC countries) and the future of what is known as “response measures”,
covering countries and communities disadvantaged by the transition to a low carbon economy
Where is the money?
Developing countries want guarantees that they will be supported when they commit to new stricter climate plans. It is inevitable that in Madrid the question of the commitment of US $ 100,000 million of the economies is raised
advanced by 2020 in favor of developing countries as well as discussions on a new objective after 2020.
There is money available, but not the required amount. The new promises of contributions to the Green Climate Fund totaled US $ 9.8 billion: far from what that is needed to deal with the weather emergency. Vulnerable countries they wanted donors to double their current efforts to ensure that the fund will add at least US $ 14,000 million. The latest OECD report reveals that the funding provided and mobilized by developed countries for developing countries reached US $ 71.2 billion in 2017, compared to US $ 58.6 billion in 2016. To reach US $ 100,000 millions “continuous efforts are required to increase public financing and improve its effectiveness in mobilizing private financing, ”he recommended. According to an analysis conducted in November 2019 by the Policy Initiative Climate, global investments in financing the fight against change climate fell from a record high of US $ 612,000 million in 2017
–Promoted in particular by the addition of renewable energy capacity in China, the United States and India – to US $ 546,000 million in 2018.
Is there a plan for 2020?
The UK government is preparing to attend Madrid and outline its plan for 2020. Observers already refer to Glasgow as the “COP of ambition,” where the world accepts the need to move from a gradual change to a transformative change, reflected in stronger national climate plans and a change of mindset global to treat the climate crisis as it is.
Who’s coming?
Envoys from almost 200 countries, the main groups, are expected to attend environmentalists, youth and representatives of indigenous communities, lobbyists business, leaders from Chile, Spain, the European Union and the Secretary General of the UN.